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Israel Elections 2009

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Israel braces
for weeks of political instability

JERUSALEM — Israel braced on Friday for weeks of political uncertainty and a paralysed Middle East peace process after final results confirmed the Kadima party narrowly won the election but suggested Likud is better placed to form a government.

The centrist Kadima of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni won 28 of the 120 parliamentary seats, just one more than Likud, the right-wing party led by former premier Benjamin Netanyahu.

But Livni's narrow edge in Tuesday's vote does not guarantee her a shot at becoming prime minister. Most pundits predict Netanyahu will be the one tapped to form a government, adding that he is also guaranteed some major headaches.

Under Israeli law, the person most likely to secure majority support in parliament -- and not automatically the winner of the vote -- gets the first crack at the top job.

The task is complicated by the fact parties need only two percent of the vote to get a seat in the Knesset. This often gives clout to special interest groups such as pro-settler or ultra-orthodox religious parties.

While Netanyahu and Livni have both been holding discussions with potential coalition partners, there is talk they could form an alliance that also include the centre-left Labour party of Defence Minister Ehud Barak.

"The chances of this are still unclear, but the top members of the three parties have a fair number of supporters for the idea of forming a government based on the three center parties," the Maariv newspaper said.

This step, the newspaper added, would defuse the power of ultra-nationalist Avigdor Lieberman. His far-right Yisrael Beitenu party came in third with 15 seats, giving him the clout of a potential kingmaker.

"Netanyahu does not really want an extreme right-wing government. Judging by all the information he has, the Americans would respond severely to this and relations between Israel and the US could enter a stalemate," Maariv wrote.

A narrow right-wing government would include parties opposed to dismantling settlements and territorial concessions in peace talks and would put Netanyahu at odds with the administration of US President Barack Obama, analysts say.

The Haaretz newspaper said a Likud-led coalition with Kadima and Labour "would deprive Netanyahu of ideological zeal" but might enable him to "advance interim agreements with the Palestinians and the Syrians."

MPs from the ultra-Orthodox religious party Shas spoke in favour of including Kadima in a Likud-led coalition, saying the government would have limited survival chances if it were too far to the right, Haaretz reported.

Zvulon Orlev of the religious, ultra-nationalist Habeit Hayehudi party also expressed support for including Kadima after meeting Netanyahu on Friday.

"We told him we would like Kadima to also be part of the next government, headed by Netanyahu, out of our concern for the state of Israel and the government's stability over time," he told Ynet News.

Palestinian officials have warned that a government including far right-wing parties would bury the already hobbled US-backed peace process that was relaunched in November 2007 after a seven-year hiatus.

But several Kadima members have urged Livni not to enter into a coalition with Netanyahu, who is popularly known as Bibi, according to the mass-selling Yediot Aharonot.

"Such a government will not last even a year. Bibi wants to send us into the opposition and to dismantle Kadima, but we will dismantle him first," the newspaper quoted a Kadima MP as saying.

President Shimon Peres is due to hold talks with the parliamentary parties starting next Wednesday to decide whom to task with forming a coalition.

His decision is unlikely to come as a surprise.

"Benjamin Netanyahu will be Israel's next prime minister," Haaretz declared.

If the president does indeed ask Netanyahu to form a government, it will be the first time in Israeli history the task does not go to the leader of the party that won the most votes.

Q+A-Who is running Israel?

JERUSALEM, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Israel's parliamentary election looks likely to leave an inconclusive outcome when counting of votes cast on Tuesday is completed on Thursday, making it unclear who will succeed Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

Here are answers to some key questions:

WHY WAS THE ELECTION HELD IN THE FIRST PLACE?

Israeli parliaments can last four years and the outgoing one could have kept sitting until 2010. But Prime Minister Ehud Olmert quit last year over a corruption scandal. He denies wrongdoing but police inquiries continue. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni took over his centrist Kadima party in September. But she failed to build a majority in parliament, preferring an election over a deal with the religious Shas party, who wanted guarantees she would not give parts of Jerusalem to a Palestinian state and more welfare payments for its poor, ultra-Orthodox constituency.

LIVNI WON THE MOST SEATS, SHOULDN'T SHE BE PRIME MINISTER?

Not so fast. True, in Israel's 60-year history, the leader of the biggest parliamentary party has always been nominated prime minister, at least immediately after an election. But there is nothing in writing -- Israel has no formal constitution -- that obliges President Shimon Peres to ask Livni to forge a coalition. Benjamin Netanyahu, whose right-wing Likud party has a seat fewer than Kadima, says he is better placed to form a stable administration among the dozen or so parties who will sit in the Knesset. Livni has invited Netanyahu to join her team. Neither of their parties has even a quarter of the 120 seats.

SO WHEN WILL WE KNOW WHO IS PRIME MINISTER?

Peres is likely to take his time, consulting all parties, before nominating someone to try and form a government. Legally, he has a week from the publication of the official election results, something expected at present around Feb. 18. He could use much of that time, analysts say. Peres is a former Labour prime minister who joined Kadima when it was founded in 2005 by former Likud premier Ariel Sharon. Whatever his own political preferences, however, the 85-year-old head of state's mandate is to nominate the person most favoured by members of parliament.

AND WILL PERES'S CHOICE THEN BE PRIME MINISTER?

Again, not so fast. Peres nominated Livni to form a cabinet in September but she failed and so was never premier. Peres's choice will have 42 days to form a government. In the meantime, Olmert will remain as caretaker prime minister. The six-week period is likely to be ending just around the time that Israel is shutting down for the Passover holiday, from April 8. If Peres's nominee fails to strike deals with other parties to form a coalition, Peres can turn to a second choice. Continued deadlock, however, would mean going back to the electorate.

DOES IT MATTER THAT THERE'S NO NEW PRIME MINISTER? Yes and no. Some issues, such as negotiating a longer-term truce with Hamas after last month's war in the Gaza Strip seem likely to be dealt with by the outgoing administration. Indeed, some analysts see it being easier for the caretaker team to make tough decisions such as releasing Hamas prisoners in return for captive soldier Gilad Shalit. But U.S. President Barack Obama and his team will be frustrated at the continued inter-regnum that has put peace negotiations with Palestinians in the West Bank on hold. And, closer to home, Israelis and investors are anxious for a new government to draw up a 2009 budget and a stimulus package to bolster the economy amid a global storm.

Israel ELECTIONS

Partial results:
Israel election too close to call

JERUSALEM — A partial count of votes shows Israel's election is too close to call.

Israel's Central Elections Committee said Wednesday that with 27 percent of votes counted,

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's centrist Kadima Party is narrowly in
first place with 27 of parliament's 120 seats.

Benjamin Netanyahu's hawkish Likud Party was right behind with 26.

Ballot boxes are prepared for the upcoming Israeli elections, at the headquarters
of the Israeli Elections Committee, near the central Israeli town of Shoham, Monday.

IDF Soldiers, Border Police are Already Voting

Voting has been underway since Saturday night for members of the Israeli military serving at bases in Israel, on ships at sea, and abroad. Soldiers serving on Mount Hermon are scheduled to vote on Monday in advance of stormy weather forecast for Tuesday.

On Saturday night the IDF opened the first polling station in an unnamed Air Force base, for soldiers leaving Israel to carry out unspecified military assignments abroad. At 8 a.m. Sunday, the Border Police opened three polling stations: one in the North, one in the central coastal area, and one in the South. At least 415 border police officers cast their votes Sunday.

Tuesday Night LIVE in Jerusalem

Election Special

Rabbi Noah Weinberg

Rabbi Noah Weinberg

Rabbi Noah Weinberg, the founder and dean of the sprawling global outreach operation Aish HaTorah, died Thursday at his home in Jerusalem. He was 78 and was suffering from cancer.

Government approves
"Israeli White House"

In one of its last acts in office, Israel's Cabinet has approved plans to build an "Israeli White House."

The Cabinet voted in favor of the $162 million plan during the Cabinet's final meeting before Tuesday's election.

The plan calls for a single complex to replace the existing office and residence of the prime minister. Both are currently in separate parts of Jerusalem.

Proponents says the new complex will cut security and transportation costs. It also will allow to prime minister to remain in the same place in times of emergency and offer a more respectable locale to host world leaders.

Four ministers objected in Sunday's vote. They said the cost of the project was unreasonable in these tough financial times.

How Israel's electoral system works

The Knesset by party

Number of seats per party following 2006 elections:
Kadima: 29
Labor: 18
Likud: 12
Shas: 12
Yisrael Beitenu: 11
Other parties: 38

Israel was founded on democratic principles with the Jewish state's declaration of independence in 1948 including a commitment to the "complete equality of social and political rights to all its inhabitants irrespective of religion, race or sex." It has remained a continuous democracy ever since.

The seat of Israeli government is the Knesset, the country's national parliament, located in Jerusalem, which Israel claims as its capital. The Knesset's 120 lawmakers are elected by universal suffrage with all Israeli citizens over the age of 18 entitled to vote.

Knesset seats are divided according to each party's proportion of the overall vote. But parties must poll at least two percent nationally to gain a seat.

Participation in elections, including among Arab Israelis who constitute around 20 percent of the population, has traditionally been high at around 80 percent turnout, according to Israeli government figures. Israel currently has around 5.3 million eligible voters.

Israel usually holds national elections every four years. But this year's poll on February 10 was called early -- less than three years since the last vote -- by Israeli President Shimon Peres following the resignation of prime minister Ehud Olmert amid allegations of corruption and his Kadima Party successor Tzipi Livni's failure to form a coalition. Olmert has continued to serve as caretaker prime minister in the interim.

Coalitions of two or more parties are common in Israel; in fact no party has ever won enough votes to form a government by itself. Those remaining outside the ruling coalition make up the opposition.

Thirty-four parties will participate in the 2009 elections, including major parties such as Kadima, Likud and Labor and also three Arab parties.

The task of forming and leading a government is charged by Israel's president to the Knesset member and party leader considered to have the best chance of forming a viable coalition.

The prime minister-designate then has 28 days, extendable by 14 days, to build a coalition commanding the support of at least 61 Knesset members.

Officials results are due to be published on February 18 with the new Knesset convening on March 2.

A look at top PM candidates in Israel's election

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU:

Hawkish former prime minister, tagged by opinion polls as front-runner, presents himself as a leader who will not be seduced by dreams of peace into letting down his guard against Israel's enemies.

Netanyahu, 59, promises to expand Jewish settlements in the West Bank and says a peace accord with the Palestinians is impossible now. He argues Israel should instead try to boost the Palestinian economy while continuing its military occupation indefinitely.

Still, he is not an unbending ideologue, unlike many in his Likud Party, and was seen by some to have displayed some pragmatism during his run as prime minister in 1996-99.

Netanyahu, who lived in the U.S. as a child and speaks fluent, American-accented English, says he knows how to maintain Israel's vital strategic relationship with Washington. But his policies could put him on a collision course with President Barack Obama's new administration.

TZIPI LIVNI:

Leader of the governing centrist Kadima Party, she is the foreign minister and has overseen a year of negotiations with the Palestinians that showed little visible progress on the ground.

Livni, 50, has campaigned as the best hope for bringing peace while promising to take a tough line toward Palestinian militants. Although she lacks the battlefield credentials of her male rivals, she was one of the architects of Israel's offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

As a young woman she worked for the Mossad spy agency, and was a corporate lawyer before entering politics.

Livni was elected to head Kadima in a closely fought primary in September, replacing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who is stepping down to fight corruption charges. A victory would make her Israel's second female leader after Golda Meir, who served from 1969 to 1974.

EHUD BARAK:

Defense minister in the outgoing government, the Labor Party chief hopes to reclaim the premiership he briefly held a decade ago, campaigning on an image burnished by last month's fighting in Gaza.

Born on a communal farm in 1942 to Holocaust survivors, he spent 36 years in the army, becoming Israel's most-decorated soldier and the military chief of staff. He joined the government under Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, and in May 1999 he ousted Netanyahu as prime minister.

Barak has boosted his image with the Gaza campaign, but he is considered a long shot to come out ahead in the race to be prime minister. Labor was long the dominant party in Israel, but its popularity has slumped since Barak's peace talks with the Palestinians collapsed into prolonged violence in 2000.

AVIGDOR LIEBERMAN:

An immigrant from Moldova who was once a marginal political player, he has seen his support surge. In what could be a dramatic upset, pre-election polls show his Yisrael Beiteinu party ahead of Barak's venerable Labor.

Lieberman has centered his platform on attacking Israel's Arab citizens, demanding they sign an oath of loyalty or lose their right to vote or be elected. Perhaps his most polarizing policy is to redraw Israel's borders, pushing areas with heavy concentrations of Arabs outside the country and under Palestinian jurisdiction.

Lieberman appears to be capitalizing on a swell of hard-line sentiment among Israelis, fueled partially by the rocket fire from Gaza that sparked Israel's recent offensive there.

Israel's Tzipi Livni turns to the left for votes

Reporting from Jerusalem -- First there was the "healing through laughter" seminar. Then "Orit the Carpenter," sort of a lesbian Martha Stewart, took the microphone and yelled, "We have seen our share of candidates over the years . . . all oozing testosterone and ego. But I have news for them: We, the woman, can do this!"

Later, transsexual pop star Dana International performed a bouncy disco song and announced, "I now formally invite you to the diva sisterhood."

Cue the candidate: Tzipi Livni entered the room to a rapturous reception, working the crowd and accepting hugs and air kisses from the nearly 1,000 supporters (90% female) attending a "campaign happening for women" in Jerusalem.

The atmosphere Friday afternoon was somewhere between political rally and Lilith Fair. Splashes of pink and fuchsia leaped from posters, balloons and T-shirts. Female artisans at dozens of tables offered handmade jewelry and baby clothes, plus tarot card readings and life coaching sessions.

As Livni, 50, heads toward Tuesday's national election for prime minister, she is reshaping the centrist Kadima party in her image, reaching out to female and far-left voters who never supported the party founded by gruff former Gen. Ariel Sharon.

With the latest polls showing her narrowly trailing hawkish Likud Party leader Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu, Livni is honing an image that combines the strength and decisiveness that Israelis seek in their leaders with a distinctly girl-power vibe -- along with a dose of Obama-styled hope-and-change rhetoric.

"She's growing into the role and adapting the party to her personality," said Edna Mazya, a playwright and prominent member of the leftist political establishment.

Mazya described herself as a longtime supporter of the far-left Meretz party. But this time she's voting for Livni, hoping to stave off a right-wing tilt under Netanyahu and rising hard-liner Avigdor Lieberman.

"You're not voting for someone; you're voting against those who you don't want in power," said Henriette Dahan-Kalev, director of gender studies at Ben-Gurion University, who described Livni as a potential "default vote" for large segments of the left.

Israeli Arabs may Boycott Israel Elections